Betting

Moneyline is a bet on who simply wins the game. A negative number is the favorite -- e.g. −148 means you'd bet $148 to win $100 (plus your $148 back). A positive number is the underdog -- e.g. +124 means a $100 bet wins $124. Spread handicaps the favorite by a point margin so both sides are roughly equally likely to "cover" -- the favorite (shown negative, e.g. KC −3.0) must win by more than 3 to cover; the underdog (shown positive, e.g. DEN +3.0) covers by losing by less than 3, or winning outright. Total (over/under) is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under one number. "Model vs. market" below compares our model's margin to the actual spread -- the gap is our pitch, not the raw pick.