Efficiency stats, roster & coaching continuity, and situational edges the market overlooks.
Perfect Team & Draft Board
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This Week's Board
How This Site Works
Every dashboard here runs on public data, not scraped guesses. nflverse (the open-source project behind nflfastR) supplies play-by-play efficiency (EPA per play), weekly stats, roster and depth-chart snapshots, and -- critically for the Betting side -- real market lines (spread, moneyline, total) straight from the same schedule feed, no paid odds subscription required. FantasyPros' consensus expert rankings serve as the "market" baseline on the Fantasy side. The National Weather Service fills in game-day forecasts. The one exception: offensive and defensive coordinator continuity is hand-researched and cross-checked against independent reporting each offseason, since no free feed tracks that.
Every number here is explainable, not a black box. Fantasy rankings start from recency-weighted 2025 production, then adjust for the "boring" stuff that actually moves outcomes: O-line/D-line continuity, head coach and coordinator continuity, and availability. The Dream Team isn't a top-14 list -- it's a real pick-by-pick snake-draft simulation built on Value Over Replacement, the same math serious fantasy strategy runs on. The Betting side works the same way in reverse: offense-vs-defense efficiency, rest, rivalry/revenge context, and weather, synthesized into a plain-English storyline for every game instead of a bare number.
Most sites hand you a ranking or a line and stop there. This one shows the reasoning and puts it next to the market: where the Draft Board disagrees with FantasyPros' consensus, or where our spread differs from the actual Vegas line, that gap is the point -- it's either a real edge or a sign the model is missing something, and either way it's more useful than a number with no story behind it. Use it alongside your usual sites, not as a replacement for your own judgment.
Football Forecast is a personal research project. Every number here comes from a documented, tunable model built on public data (nflverse, FantasyPros consensus, NWS weather) -- nothing here is professional betting or financial advice, and past model accuracy does not guarantee future results.